Seventh-round rookie running back Isiah Pacheco has blossomed into a dynamic weapon on the best offense in the NFL.
Pacheco led the Chiefs in rushing yards in the regular season despite taking over the lead job midway through the year, beating out former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire and veteran Jerick McKinnon. In the playoffs, he’s delivered as a rusher and a receiver and he could be one of the key players in Super Bowl LVII if he can exploit the Eagles’ run defense.
There are plenty of player prop markets available where bettors can back or fade the rookie in the biggest game of his young career.
Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards
Over 49.5 (-118) | Under 49.5 (-125)
Since Pacheco took over as the starter in Week 7, he’s rushed for 50 or more yards in nine of 13 games. That includes his playoff debut against the Jaguars, when he ran for 95 yards, and the AFC championship versus the Bengals, in which he totaled just 26 yards on the ground. Pacheco has been Kansas City’s most efficient running back with an average of 4.9 yards per carry. He rarely shoulders a heavy workload in an offense that passes as often as the Chiefs do, though. Since Week 7, he’s seen just over 12 rushes per game, which would be enough for him to clear this prop based on his yards per carry average. Philadelphia’s fearsome defense is surprisingly weak against the run as it ranks 21st in rush defense DVOA.
Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards
Over 16.5 (-118) | Under 16.5 (-125)
The Cincinnati game was the most Pacheco has been involved as a receiver all season. He saw six targets, hauled in five receptions and finished with 59 receiving yards, third-most on the team. Prior to that game, three catches, three targets and 32 yards were Pacheco’s season-highs. He’s only topped 16.5 receiving yards five times this season but all in the last 10 games. If the Eagles’ pass rush is getting to Mahomes, Pacheco could see quite a few dump offs come his way.
Isiah Pacheco Longest Rush
Over 13.5 (-118) | Under 13.5 (-133)
Pacheco displayed his explosiveness down the stretch with runs of 30-plus yards in two of his last three games and he’s had at least one carry go for 14 or more yards in seven games this year. Philadelphia let Christian McCaffrey break off a 23-yard run in the NFC title game and Saquon Barkley romped for a 39-yard rush in the divisional round. The Eagles are in the bottom 10 in opponents’ yards per carry.
Isiah Pacheco Rushing Attempts
Over 11.5 (-118) | Under 11.5 (-125)
Pacheco has averaged 11 carries per game in the postseason and he’s led the Chiefs in both games. McKinnon only had one less rush than the rookie against Jacksonville, but Pacheco handled a higher percentage of the workload against Cincinnati. Even though Edwards-Helaire is active for the Super Bowl, the backfield split will likely still favor Pacheco on the ground and McKinnon as the pass-catching back. If Kansas City is nursing a fourth-quarter lead, this should be an easy over. But if Philadelphia takes an early lead, coach Andy Reid might be hard-pressed to entrust Pacheco with a dozen or more carries while trailing.
Isiah Pacheco Rushing Touchdowns
Over 0.5 (+170) | Under 0.5 (-275)
Pacheco doesn’t have any rushing touchdowns in the playoffs and neither do the Chiefs. Around the goal line, Kansas City prefers to pass with Mahomes under center and Travis Kelce creating mismatches. Only seven teams recorded more rushing touchdowns in the regular season, but the scoring was very evenly distributed which makes it difficult to predict who—if anyone—will run one in. Pacheco’s five touchdowns led the way and Mahomes finished second with four. Eight players finished with at least one rushing touchdown for the Chiefs.
Isiah Pacheco Touchdown Markets
First (+950) | Anytime (+140) | Last (+1000)
Pacheco’s five rushing touchdowns led the team but he has yet to score a receiving touchdown in his career. He has the fifth-best odds of any player to find the end zone and the second-best for Kansas City behind Kelce, who’s the most likely player to score. Pacheco’s uptick in involvement in the passing game of late could present an extra opportunity or two to score, but the longer odds on a rushing touchdown seems like a better bet.
Isiah Pacheco MVP Odds
Pacheco has the eighth-best odds to win MVP and the third-best among Chiefs players behind Mahomes and Kelce. No rookie has even earned Super Bowl MVP honors and the last running back to win the award did so in 1998.
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